FX168财经报社(香港)讯据周六(1月4日)FX168每周金融市场调查显示,本周美元先抑后扬,贸易局势紧张、经济数据疲弱,再加上美联储向市场注入巨大的流动性,美元承压,最低跌至,周五受到避险情绪提振,最高反弹至,随后回到97下方。分析师和交易员对美元下周的前景出现分歧。

NEW YORK (Reuters)- The U.S. dollar rallied to the bottom of 97 after a week of tight trade and weak economic data as the Federal Reserve injected huge liquidity into the market on Saturday (Jan.4), a weekly financial market survey showed. Analysts and traders are at odds over the dollar's outlook for next week.

原子资产管理(香港)有限公司,创始人兼基金管理人周一认为,美元指数技术形态在2019年12月收线确认顶部,重要支撑位已被跌破,恐有继续下跌风险,建议投资者逢高坚定做空,下方空间巨大!

Atomic asset management (hong kong) ltd., founder and fund manager, on monday said that the dollar index technology form at the end of the line in december 2019 confirmed that the top, the important support has been broken, there is a risk of continued decline, it is recommended that investors every high firm short, the space below huge!

本周,美元上半周持续遭遇抛售,最低,因贸易局势的乐观消息,美国经济数据疲软,加剧经济担忧,以及美联储向市场注入巨大流动性,不过周四、周五,美元迎来反弹,尤其是周五最高升至。

This week, the dollar continued to suffer from a sell-off in the last half of the week, with positive news of the trade situation, weak US economic data, increased economic concerns, and the Federal Reserve injected huge liquidity into the market, but on Thursday, Friday, the dollar was in a rebound, particularly the highest rise to Friday.

消息面来看,美国总统特朗普称,他期待于1月15日之前同中方签署第一阶段经贸协议。这给期待贸易协议细节的市场带来提振,刺激了冒险意愿,打压美元,最低刷新六个月低位。

美国供应管理协会(ISM)报告称,美国12月制造业活动降幅为逾十年最大,订单跌至近11年低点,制造业就业人数连续第五个月下降。美国制造业陷入10年来最严重的衰退,也打压美元指数。

The U.S. Supply Management Association (ISM) reported the largest decline in manufacturing activity in more than a decade in December, with orders falling to nearly 11-year lows and manufacturing employment falling for the fifth consecutive month. The U.S. manufacturing industry has plunged into its worst recession in a decade and has also weighed on the dollar index.

CambridgeGlobalPayments首席市场策略师KarlSchamotta:“这是一个令人沮丧的数字,与贸易冲突相关的不确定性实际上正在持续损害制造业,直指GDP疲弱,尤其是在下个季度,因为你很可能看到的是库存下降,而不是持续增加。”

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Cambridge GlobalPayments:\" This is a frustrating number, and uncertainty associated with trade conflicts is actually continuing to hurt manufacturing, pointing to weak GDP, especially in the coming quarter, as you are likely to see a fall in inventory rather than a sustained increase.\"

对美元的长期影响尚不清楚。尽管美元周五受到经济数据拖累而走低,但如果美国制造业放缓削弱人们对2020年全球经济增长的希望,美元最终可能受益。

The long-term impact on the dollar is unclear. Although the dollar was dragged down by economic data on friday, the dollar could eventually benefit if the us manufacturing slowdown weakens hopes of global growth by 2020.

麦格理集团全球利率和外汇策略师ThierryWizman说:“我们认为,2020年的总体趋势仍然是美元兑主要货币走弱。这在一定程度上受全球经济将恢复增长的观点支撑,这将有利于非美货币。”

\"We think the overall trend for 2020 is still the weakening of the dollar against major currencies,\" said Thierry Wizman, global rate and foreign exchange strategist at Macquarie Group. This is partly underpinned by the idea that the global economy will return to growth, which will benefit non-US currencies.

技术上,美元指数本周持稳一线反弹,周五目前在一线受阻,不过考虑到走势已经下破2018年以来上行趋势线并且同时处于2019年10月以来下行通道中,继续突破继续上涨预计空间也不会很大。

Technically, the U.S. dollar index rebounded this week and is now on the block on Friday, although given that it has broken the upward trend line since 2018 and is also in the downward path since October 2019, it is not much room to continue to break through.

关于日元:美军无人机空袭伊拉克,炸死伊朗将军,导致中东紧张局势骤然升温,日元等避险资产上扬,美元/日元连续跌破了多个技术支撑,创下11月初以来最低。

Regarding the yen: U.S. drone strikes in Iraq killed Iranian generals, causing a sudden rise in tensions in the Middle East, as risk-averse assets such as the yen rose and the U.S. dollar\/JPY fell below several technical supports, its lowest since early November.


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